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Iran may see political benefit in absorbing US escalation
Iran has calculated that it can gain politically from escalation with the US, even if it comes at a military cost, according to Stephen Zunes, founding chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco.
Zunes told Al Jazeera that Tehran is responding to mounting pressure from the US, noting that “every escalation that comes from Washington, they’ll find some sort of response”, despite what he called an asymmetrical dynamic given the force the US could bring to bear against Iran.
“Iran also recognises that, politically, they have the advantage through the damage they can do to shipping and American assets, and those of their allies,” Zunes said.
Tehran may be “welcoming an escalation, because they believe whatever damage can be done on their side, they can reap some political benefits”, he added.
He said Tehran may also be testing whether Washington is willing to de-escalate, though Iran could face “logistical issues in terms of manpower and military equipment” in sustaining a response.
Zunes cautioned that this assumes the US is acting rationally, when, instead, Trump has shown “impulsive” decision-making in the targets and goals pursued over the past week, reports AL Jazeera.
He added that it remains to be seen whether renewed negotiations “normalise things” or become “another blip in the cycle of violence and escalation”.