Climate Crisis Revives Soviet-Era Hydro Project in Central Asia

The Kambar-Ata-1 hydroelectric plant, located on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan, is set to become a rare symbol of regional cooperation, excluding the influence of the neighboring superpowers, Russia and China.

"This project is crucial for Central Asia," said Kyrgyzstan's Energy Minister, Taalaibek Ibrayev, during a visit to the future site, attended by AFP.

In a trilateral meeting with Kyrgyzstan shortly afterward, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan officials emphasized that Kambar-Ata-1 would "bring immense benefits to the region" and help "ensure the long-term stability and development of Central Asia."

Such declarations of unity, once unthinkable, reflect the increasing pressures of water and energy shortages that are driving once-rival countries toward collaboration.

However, before the project can come to fruition, backers must secure investments of at least $3.5 billion to bring it to life.

Renewed Hope and Strategic Imperatives

The collapse of the Soviet Union, followed by years of economic instability, corruption, and regional conflicts, halted monumental energy projects like Kambar-Ata-1, which was originally proposed in 1986.

"The collapse of the Soviet Union dismantled crucial water and energy networks," explained Rasul Umbetaliyev, a Kyrgyz energy expert.

Historically, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were expected to receive electricity from regional neighbors such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in exchange for sharing their vast water resources. However, disputes over adherence to these agreements have been a source of tension.

Umbetaliyev believes Kambar-Ata-1 is "critical" for both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, who rely on the water stored by the plant for irrigation and energy during the summer months. The project will also enable Kyrgyzstan to export electricity to its neighbors—and potentially to Afghanistan and Pakistan—under the CASA-1000 initiative.

According to the World Bank, Kyrgyzstan’s mountainous terrain holds significant untapped hydropower potential, with less than one-fifth currently in use.

Kambar-Ata-1 is projected to generate 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually, more than enough to address Kyrgyzstan’s electricity deficit of around 3.9 billion kWh, a shortfall exacerbated by growing water scarcity that is impacting the country's hydroelectric plants.

The Eurasian Development Bank stresses that "building new hydroelectric stations while upgrading existing ones is key to mitigating the effects of climate change."

Economic Challenges and the Need for Investment

Kambar-Ata-1 is expected to provide an essential boost to power stations further downstream, particularly Toktogul, which currently supplies 40% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity.

At the heart of the Toktogul power station is a frieze bearing an iconic quote from Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin: “Communism is Soviet power and the electrification of the whole country.”

Despite the passing of a century, Kyrgyzstan’s power sector still relies heavily on state subsidies to maintain affordable electricity for its citizens, a policy dating back to Soviet times.

“The current tariffs do not reflect the true cost of electricity production,” Ibrayev noted. “If we continue down this path, we will face a power crisis within five to ten years. That’s why we urgently need to develop this new plant.”

Kambar-Ata-1, if successfully completed, could be a pivotal step toward stabilizing the region's energy landscape and addressing the growing challenges posed by climate change. However, the substantial financial commitment required remains the project’s key obstacle.