The Global Demographic Struggle Over Migration

The number of people desiring to emigrate permanently exceeds the number of immigrants countries are willing to admit, leading many individuals to migrate without authorization.

Approximately 1.3 billion people, or 16% of the world’s population, wish to leave their country permanently, while over a billion people believe that fewer or no immigrants should be allowed into their countries. This demographic struggle between the two sides over international migration is causing significant social, economic, and political repercussions for nations and their citizens.

The 1.3 billion individuals desiring to emigrate to another country is over four times the size of the estimated total number of immigrants worldwide in 2025, which is around 305 million. If all the people desiring to emigrate could do so, the global number of immigrants would increase to about 1.6 billion.

While an estimate of the total number of immigrants in the world is readily available, estimating the total number of unauthorized immigrants is much more challenging, with few reliable estimates available on a global scale.

If the percentage of unauthorized immigrants among all immigrants in the United States—approximately 25%—applies to the global immigrant population, the estimated number of unauthorized immigrants worldwide would be around 75 million.

The global proportion desiring to emigrate permanently to another country has increased significantly in recent years, rising from 12% in 2011 to 16% in 2023.

Additionally, the desire to emigrate varies greatly across different regions of the world. In 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion desiring to emigrate at 37%, a significant increase from 29% in 2011.

In almost all major regions, the proportion desiring to emigrate permanently saw a substantial increase between 2011 and 2023. For instance, the proportions for the regions of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, rose from approximately 18% to 28%.

The desire to emigrate is not exclusive to developing regions. In the European Union, nearly 20% of the population in 2023 expressed a desire to emigrate. Similarly, in the United States and Canada, around 18% of their populations in 2023 desired to emigrate—a significant increase from the 10% reported in 2011.

The significant imbalance between the desire to emigrate and the number of immigrants countries are accepting is a major demographic factor contributing to unauthorized migration. Thousands of migrants die annually on migration routes in their attempts to reach their desired destination country.

The number of people desiring to emigrate permanently exceeds the number of immigrants countries are willing to admit, leading many individuals to migrate without authorization.

For example, while approximately 170 million adults wish to emigrate to the United States, the country’s annual number of immigrants granted legal permanent residence has ranged from 1 to 2 million, with net immigration expected to average just over 1 million annually in the future. Similarly, in Canada, about 85 million people desire to emigrate, but the annual number of immigrants admitted ranges from 400,000 to 500,000.

In addition to the demographic imbalance, other important factors contributing to unauthorized migration include poverty, unemployment, low wages, harsh living conditions, violence, crime, persecution, political instability, armed conflict, lack of health care, limited educational opportunities, and climate change.

Many migrant destination countries are experiencing record-high numbers of unlawful border crossings, unauthorized arrivals, and visa overstays, leading to millions of individuals living unlawfully within those countries.

Human rights regarding international migration are relatively straightforward. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that “Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.” While all people have the right to leave and return to their country, they do not have the right to enter another without permission nor to overstay a temporary visit.

However, Article 14 of the Declaration also states that “Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution.” As a result, many migrants entering a country without authorization claim asylum to escape persecution.

To be granted asylum, an individual must meet the internationally recognized definition of a refugee.

The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol codified the right of asylum. The right to asylum is for anyone with “a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.”

The Convention and its Protocol, however, do not require governments to grant asylum to those who qualify.

By claiming asylum, migrants lacking legal authorization to enter are, in principle, permitted to remain in the destination country while their asylum claims are being adjudicated. Typically, the adjudication process takes several years, and the large majority of asylum claims are denied.

For example, in the United States, approximately 70 percent of asylum claims have been denied over the past several years. Similarly, high levels of asylum claim denials—often exceeding 70 percent in first-instance applications—are reported among many European countries, including France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Sweden.

Many destination countries, especially wealthy, more developed nations, view the extensive use of asylum claims by unauthorized migrants as a means of avoiding deportation. Although most claims are judged to lack merit, the large number of claims overwhelms the ability of countries to review them in a timely manner and enforce negative rulings to send people back to their home countries.

To address the large number of asylum claims, some countries are adopting various policies. For example, some are requiring unauthorized migrants to wait abroad while their asylum claims are being considered. Others mandate that unauthorized migrants seek asylum in another country and have implemented policies to transfer migrants to different third countries for processing or resettlement.

Looking to the future, the world’s population—currently at 8.2 billion—is expected to increase by another two billion over the next fifty years. During this time, the population of more developed regions is projected to decline by around 70 million.

In contrast, by 2075, the population of less developed regions (excluding the least developed countries) is projected to grow by close to 700 million. This population increase is about half the level expected for the least developed countries, which are expected to grow by about 1.4 billion.

While countries are addressing unauthorized migration, many are also experiencing or anticipating population decline. Despite the current and expected decreases in population size, countries are not ready to accept large numbers of immigrants.

Instead of increasing immigration, countries are focusing on raising their low fertility rates, which have fallen and remain well below replacement level.

Business leaders, employers, various non-governmental organizations, families, and some government officials acknowledge the benefits of international migration and may even tolerate some unauthorized migration.

However, many citizens in destination countries—particularly those on the political far right—increasingly view newcomers, especially those living in the country without authorization, as a threat to jobs, cultural integrity, national security, and a financial burden on public funds. Consequently, many governments in these countries have implemented policies and actions to deport migrants, especially those who are unauthorized.

Furthermore, opponents of increased immigration worry that it will negatively impact their traditional culture, shared values, and national identity. They believe that immigration—particularly unauthorized migration—undermines their way of life, national security, ethnic heritage, and social cohesion.

In conclusion, international migration has always been a fundamental, defining demographic phenomenon with significant economic, social, and political implications worldwide. Currently, the global population of over 8.2 billion people is grappling with an escalating struggle over international migration.

On one side of this struggle are approximately 1.3 billion people desiring to emigrate—many of whom choose to do so without authorization and often risk their lives to reach their destination. On the other side are over a billion people in destination countries attempting to prevent this migration, reduce rising numbers of immigrants, and deport those living in their territories without authorization, including many asylum seekers.

Given the demographics, the stark differences between the two sides, and current trends across countries, it is likely that the struggle over international migration will persist throughout the 21st century.