Survey Shows Tight Race Between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami

Logo of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.

A pre-election public opinion survey indicates a closely contested race between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the 13th National Parliament election in 2026.

The survey, covering 22,174 registered voters across 295 constituencies in all 64 districts, found that 34.7% of respondents intend to vote for the BNP, while 33.6% favour Jamaat-e-Islami. Support for other parties was much lower: 7.1% for the National Citizen Party (NCP), 3.1% for the Islamic Movement of Bangladesh, and 4.5% for other smaller parties. Notably, 17% of voters remain undecided.

The findings were presented at a press conference held at the National Press Club by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), in collaboration with Projection BD, Jagran Foundation and Narrative.

The survey was conducted between 21 November and 20 December, using a stratified sampling method to ensure balanced representation across geography, urban-rural areas, and demographics. Post-stratification weighting was applied based on the 2022 national census. Using machine-learning projections that account for likely undecided voter preferences, the survey estimates BNP’s vote share could rise to 43.2%, while Jamaat-e-Islami’s support could reach 40.8%.

BNP’s Support Base:
The BNP’s appeal is largely driven by voters’ perception of the party’s experience and ability to govern. About 72.1% of its supporters cited past administrative experience as the primary reason for backing the party. The party performs strongest among voters aged 30–44 (38.4%) and 45–59 (37.4%), with particularly high support among farmers (42.6%) and workers (40.6%).

Jamaat’s Appeal Among Youth and Educated Voters:
Jamaat-e-Islami draws much of its support from the perception of honesty and low corruption, with 44.8% of supporters citing “less corruption” and 40.7% pointing to the party’s “image of honesty.” The party is most popular among younger voters aged 18–29 (33.6%) and those with postgraduate education (37.4%). Its engagement through digital and social media platforms has also strengthened its connection with young and educated electorates.

Other Parties and Undecided Voters:
The National Citizen Party’s support is largely linked to its perceived role in the July uprising, with 36.7% of its supporters citing this factor. Among the undecided voters, 30.1% said they do not trust any political party, while 38.6% were unsure of their preferences. This group is described as a potential “game changer” in the election outcome.

The survey characterises the 2026 election as a contest between what it terms a “hierarchy of needs,” represented by BNP’s emphasis on experience and economic stability, and a “hierarchy of values,” reflected in Jamaat-e-Islami’s focus on honesty and justice. It also highlights strong public demand for institutional reform, anti-corruption measures, and accountability over the July events.

The press briefing was attended by IILD Chairman Dr Mahfuzul Haque, University of London professor Dr Mushtaq Khan, University of Regina associate professor Dr AKM Waresul Karim, BDJobs CEO Dr Muhammad Asadullah, political analyst AKM Fahim Mashrur, Professor Dilara Chowdhury, and Major General (retd) Amsa Amin, among others.