BNP govt to take office with economy at a crossroads

Calculating profits and losses.

As Bangladesh prepares for the formation of a new government following the 13th national election, expectations are running high among depositors, investors and job seekers seeking relief from prolonged financial strain.

The BNP-led alliance is set to assume office amid mounting economic pressures, with questions swirling over who will take charge of the finance ministry and what policy direction the new administration will adopt to tackle banking fragility, stubborn inflation and sluggish job creation.

For Abdul Hamid, a retired government employee, said the stakes are deeply personal.

He has been unable to recover Tk 24 lakh that he placed as a fixed deposit in a private bank.

“I expected the new government that they will return my Tk 24 lakh, which was fixed and deposited in a private bank. But the bank fails to pay me the principal amount and benefits,” Hamid told UNB.

He said many depositors in several private sector banks face similar hardship, with institutions unable to repay funds, leaving families struggling due to a lack of liquidity.

Stock market investors are also looking for signs of a turnaround. Golam Azad, 45, invested around Tk 35 lakh in 2007 after being encouraged by a friend to seek higher returns.

He suffered losses during the stock market scams of 2010 and 2011 and has since waited for a sustained recovery.

Azad said he hopes the incoming democratic government will take meaningful steps to support market stability and protect investors.

Young graduates represent another anxious constituency.

Washim Habib, who completed his degree at a public university in 2021, has sat for the Bangladesh Civil Service (BCS) and other government recruitment examinations but remains unemployed.

Habib said he is seeking employment in either the public or private sector, noting that his elderly parents can no longer continue to support his expenses.

He expressed hope that the new democratic government will create opportunities to help him secure suitable work.

Finance Adviser Flags Structural Challenges

Against this backdrop, Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed, Finance Adviser to the interim administration, has issued a pointed warning about the scale of the economic challenges awaiting the next leadership.

Speaking to reporters at the Bangladesh Secretariat, he said the primary mission of the incoming government must be revitalising trade and industry while strengthening financial institutions to ensure long-term stability.

Job creation, he stressed, is central to restoring economic momentum.

“If business does not expand, employment will not be generated. And without employment, the purchasing power of the people will remain weak. This is one of the biggest challenges,” he said.

He urged policymakers to foster a vibrant private sector, arguing that the country’s industrial base remains relatively small and overly dependent on exports.

Inflation and Banking Sector Strains

Inflation, he said, remains a “multidimensional problem” that cannot be resolved through monetary policy alone.

While the interim administration has introduced several measures, broader and more comprehensive steps will be required to provide relief.

On banking sector reform, the adviser acknowledged that reorganisation efforts are under way but cautioned that “difficult decisions” lie ahead.

He praised recent initiatives by the central bank governor but noted that credit flow remains constrained and full public confidence in the banking system has yet to return, despite a recent uptick in deposits.

Capital Market and Energy Reform

To reduce overreliance on banks, Dr Salehuddin called for deeper capital market development.

“If we cannot develop the capital market, trade and commerce will not grow by relying solely on banks. Equity participation through the stock market and a strong bond market, especially for the private sector, are essential,” he said.

He said regulatory reform efforts are being slowed by legal complexities and ongoing court challenges.

The energy sector, he warned, poses a 'major long-term challenge'.

He called for intensified domestic exploration, including offshore drilling, and expressed disappointment at the slower-than-expected progress in solar energy development.

The insurance sector, he said, remains another 'sensitive area' where reform momentum has been limited despite various initiatives.

As the new administration prepares to take the oath of office, its first 100 days are likely to be defined by how effectively it can stabilise markets, restore investor confidence and translate high public expectations into tangible economic gains, economists said. - UNB