Democracy Weakened During Growth Surge

Bangladesh prioritised rapid economic growth over democratic accountability for more than two decades, delivering strong development gains but weakening governance structures, according to a new study released ahead of the February 2026 general election and constitutional referendum.

The report, titled “Development over Democracy? Economic Growth and Political Repression in Bangladesh,” examines governance trends as voters prepare for the February 12 election and a referendum on the proposed “July Charter,” following the August 2024 removal of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Drawing on data from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), the study describes a “striking paradox”: while democratic accountability and state capacity declined significantly between 2000 and 2021, the provision of public goods rose to record levels.

Overall democratic accountability dropped from 60 in 2000 to 44 in 2021, largely due to a fall in electoral accountability from 68 to 48 amid political repression and flawed electoral processes. State capacity peaked in 2008 but fell to 21 by 2021, below its level at the start of the period.

In contrast, public goods provision climbed steadily from 34 in 2000 to 59 in 2021, surpassing comparable improvements in neighbouring India and Pakistan.

The report attributes this trajectory to what it calls “authoritarian developmentalism,” a model in which limited political competition enabled rapid economic expansion. Between 2000 and 2025, Bangladesh recorded the world’s fourth-highest per capita GDP growth, driven largely by a concentrated, export-oriented textile sector.

By 2023, garment exports accounted for nearly all of Bangladesh’s $54.5 billion in export earnings, allowing policymakers to channel infrastructure and policy support into a single high-growth industry. Weak oversight from media, judicial institutions and international actors, the report argues, gave authorities greater freedom to maintain low wages and favourable conditions for industry stakeholders.

The study also highlights the role of non-governmental organisations and foreign aid in service delivery. Organisations such as BRAC expanded microcredit, healthcare and education services, improving human development indicators while largely focusing on implementation rather than political advocacy.

The authors compare Bangladesh’s experience to early development paths in Taiwan and South Korea, where export-led growth under authoritarian rule preceded democratic transitions. However, they caution that Bangladesh now faces a more challenging global environment.

Unlike the so-called Asian Tigers, which benefited from strong geopolitical backing, Bangladesh is confronting higher US tariffs on garment exports, declining foreign aid and intensified competition from China.

Domestically, fiscal pressures and inequality pose additional challenges. The report notes that the top 10 percent of Bangladeshis control more than 40 percent of national wealth, while political parties remain largely focused on preserving a business-friendly climate rather than pursuing redistribution.

Following the 2024 political upheaval, an interim government led by Nobel laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus assumed office amid mounting fiscal strain. The administration has proposed the July Charter, described in the report as a landmark reform agenda aimed at reversing democratic backsliding.

Proposed reforms include presidential term limits, the introduction of a bicameral legislature, strengthened judicial independence and administrative and anti-corruption measures recommended by multi-party commissions. The charter’s approval will be decided in the February 2026 referendum, to be held alongside the general election.

The study concludes that while the proposed reforms could lay a stronger foundation for long-term stability, Bangladesh cannot simply replicate earlier East Asian development models. Reconciling sustained economic growth with democratic governance, it says, will require the country to chart its own path in a more fragmented and less supportive global order.