India Trade Thrives as Tourism from Bangladesh Declines

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Despite a decline in tourism and visa restrictions, trade between Bangladesh and India continues to grow steadily, according to data from Bangladesh Bank, the National Board of Revenue, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), and Indian sources.

Trade between the two countries has shown consistent growth over the past five years. In FY 2020–21, Bangladesh imported goods worth USD 8,200.75 million from India, while exports amounted to USD 1,264.74 million. By FY 2024–25, imports had risen to USD 11,065.87 million, and exports reached USD 1,844.76 million—though slightly lower than FY 2023–24's USD 2,021.24 million, due to political instability. Data for FY 2025–26 shows Bangladesh meeting its export targets, according to EPB.

Border Push-ins Strain Relations

Tensions have escalated recently as India allegedly pushed several hundred individuals across the border into Bangladesh since 6 May. The Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) reported that the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) conducted push-ins in remote areas including Kurigram, Khagrachari, Sylhet, Moulvibazar, and Chuadanga.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain said Dhaka will send a fresh letter to New Delhi, urging adherence to bilateral mechanisms for handling such incidents. Bangladesh is verifying each individual’s citizenship before acceptance. India has submitted a list of over 2,360 individuals awaiting deportation, some of whom have served jail terms.

Visa Restrictions Impact Medical Travel

Since July 2024, India has tightened visa issuance for Bangladeshis, citing national security concerns. This has caused severe disruptions, particularly for Bangladeshi patients who annually spend between USD 2–3 billion in Indian hospitals. The Indian High Commission continues limited visa services for medical and emergency cases.

In 2024, Bangladeshi tourist arrivals in India dropped by 20% from 2023. India received 1.69 million Bangladeshi tourists in 2024, down from 2.12 million in 2023. Only 53,495 Bangladeshis visited India in December 2024—one of the lowest monthly counts in two decades.

Sources suggest visa normalization will not resume until a politically elected government is established in Dhaka.

Diplomatic Developments and Regional Dialogue

A significant breakthrough came during the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, where Bangladesh’s interim Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This was their first meeting since Yunus assumed office on 8 August 2024, following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster during mass protests.

Dr Yunus urged India to hand over former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and pressed for renewing the Ganges Water Treaty and concluding the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. Prime Minister Modi, in turn, reaffirmed India’s commitment to a democratic and inclusive Bangladesh.

Despite past tensions, both leaders expressed a desire to restore constructive engagement. Dr Yunus underscored the historical and cultural ties between the two nations, while Modi recalled India’s longstanding support during Bangladesh’s Liberation War.

India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also reiterated the importance of strong neighbourly ties, quoting former PM Vajpayee: “We can change our friends, but not our neighbours.”

Diplomatic Efforts Intensify

M. Riaz Hamidullah, Bangladesh’s new High Commissioner to India, along with Deputy High Commissioner Priti Rahman, are working to ease diplomatic tensions and improve relations.

Bangladesh's former ambassador to the U.S., M Humayun Kabir, stressed the need to understand the changing mindset of the country’s youth and work strategically to strengthen ties with India.

Meanwhile, a meeting in London between Dr Muhammad Yunus and BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman on 13 June 2025 hinted at progress towards holding national elections.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic

Despite strained relations and ongoing visa complications, trade remains a resilient pillar in Dhaka-New Delhi relations. However, political and security concerns continue to overshadow cultural and economic cooperation.

Sources say India may resume full visa operations once a new political government is in place in Bangladesh. Until then, both sides appear willing to maintain dialogue and prevent further deterioration in bilateral ties.