Belem countdown: Climate talks race to the finish

UN climate talks at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, stretch into sleepless nights as countries struggle to reconcile divergent views on climate finance, fossil fuel phase-outs & the 1.5°C warming threshold. ©PABLO PORCIUNCULA-AFP

19 Nov, Belem (T. Ajit+) – The climate talks in Belém, Brazil, have entered a frenzied final stretch, with negotiators racing to conclude by the expected deadline of Friday, Nov 21. Having commenced on Nov 10, the discussions are now deep into their second week, unfolding across three parallel tracks: technical negotiations, ministerial consultations, and Presidency-led discussions.

On Tuesday, Nov. 18 morning, the COP 30 Presidency released a draft text titled, “Global Mutirão: uniting humanity in a global mobilization against climate change”. (Further details below on the text).

The ‘mutirão’ deals with four agenda items which have been on-going since last week viz.  (i) ‘Implementation of Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement’ [which relates to the mandatory provision of finance from developed to developing countries]; (ii) ‘Promoting international cooperation and addressing the concerns with climate change related trade-restrictive unilateral measures’; (3) ‘Responding to the synthesis report on nationally determined contributions and addressing the 1.5 °C ambition and implementation gap’ and (iv) ‘Reporting and review pursuant to Article 13 of the Paris Agreement’ [which relates to the biennial transparency reports (BTRs)].

Technical negotiations also continued on the global stocktake (GST), just transition work programme (JTWP), mitigation work programme (MWP), finance issues, adaptation, review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) on Loss and Damage, among others.

Ministerial consultations convened on the GST, JTWP, MWP, global goal on adaptation (GGA), finance issues as well as gender. In the ministerial consultations, ministerial pairs are trying to tackle the most contentious/political issues related to the agenda item, by seeking bridging proposals from negotiating groups and Parties as well as in trying to understand their red lines.

On 18 Nov, following the release of the ‘mutirao’ text, the Presidency consulted with negotiating groups in a bilateral setting throughout the day, to seek their feedback and understand their red lines.

Following the bilateral meetings the Presidency convened a meeting with Parties. In its remarks to Parties, the Presidency said that they had heard from Parties their overall vision around the ‘mutirao’ text as well as their red lines. The Presidency representative said that it was time to streamline the text but for work to advance, they would need to collaborate around the three tracks of negotiations, viz. they would meet with the ministerial pairs to hear their feedback on the consultations and also with the co-facilitators of the technical work to conclude by 7 pm.

The Presidency also encouraged Parties to speak to each other and present potential landing zones and compromise by 7 pm, and to stay on in the venue until midnight. They also said that if Parties are able to finish the work by Wed. Nov 19, this would be a “historical message that we will be sending to the world and our societies. A message that multilateralism, people and the Paris Agreement need the most — we are able to work together to advance work on an unprecedented pace…”.

In a late evening communication to Parties on 18 Nov, the Presidency outlined plans for adopting the “Belem political package on 19 Nov”.

(The Belem political package comprises the following issues: Presidency ‘mutirao’ consultations on Article 9.1, unilateral trade measures, responding to the NDC synthesis report and responding to the BTR synthesis report; GGA; JTWP; MWP; GST; compilation and synthesis of, and summary report on the in-session workshop on, biennial communications of information related to Article 9.5, of the Paris Agreement; the Sharm el-Sheikh dialogue on the scope of Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement and its complementarity with Article 9 of the Paris Agreement; report of the forum on the impact of the implementation of response measures; matters relating to the Standing Committee on Finance; report of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to the COP and guidance to the GCF; report of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to the COP and guidance to the GEF; report of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) and guidance to the Fund; matters relating to the Adaptation Fund; matters relating to technology development and transfer: technology implementation programme; and reporting and review pursuant to Article 13 of the Paris Agreement: provision of financial and technical support to developing country Parties for reporting and capacity-building.)

The communication said that streamlined texts would be issued early morning on 19 Nov, and following that, the Presidency plans to engage ministers to progress towards reaching agreement. On items not included in the Belém political package, work on these items would continue on Nov 18 until midnight, with a view to preparing texts for adoption on Friday, 21 Nov.

Mutirao Text

The Mutirao text contains preambular language, followed by paragraphs under three headers — “United in celebration of the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement”; “From negotiation to implementation: Paris Agreement policy cycle fully in motion”; and “Responding to urgency: accelerating implementation, solidarity and international cooperation”. The 9-page text contains contentious issues under different options. The options presented were in the following areas:

i. Paragraph 25 on welcoming the USD 100 billion per year goal of developed countries or noting with great concern that the goal was not achieved, as well as a no-text option.

ii. Paragraph 35 on convening a workshop or to invite Parties to “share domestic opportunities and success stories on the just, orderly and equitable transition towards low carbon solutions, taking into account countries’ different national circumstances, pathways and approaches, and the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement” or to encourage Parties “to cooperate for and contribute to the global efforts referred to in paragraphs 28 (mitigation efforts including transitioning away from fossil fuels) and 33 (halting and reversing deforestation) of the GST decision… “in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement”, and “convene a high-level ministerial round table on different national circumstances, pathways and approaches with a view to supporting countries to developed just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps, including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels and towards halting and reversing deforestation”. There was also a no-text option presented for this paragraph.

iii. Paragraph 44 had options ranging from establishing an “an annual consideration of the NDCs synthesis report and the BTR synthesis report” to launching a “Global Implementation Accelerator, as a cooperative, facilitative and voluntary initiative…to accelerate implementation, enhance international cooperation, and support countries in implementing their nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans”; and a third option “to launch…the “Belem Roadmap to 1.5 (temperature goal), aiming at addressing the ambition and implementation gap of nationally determined contributions, to identify opportunities and actions to accelerate the implementation of, and international cooperation and investments in NDCs”.

iv. Paragraph 56 on adaptation finance, where the options ranged from establishing “a goal of tripling of adaptation finance [from public sources] by “[2030] or [2035], compared to 2025”; the second option to acknowledge “the need to dramatically scale up adaptation finance, with a view to achieving a balance between mitigation and adaptation…”; and a third option urging developed countries “to at least triple their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing country Parties from 2025 levels by 2030”, and launching “an annual Belem Dialogue on Tripling Adaptation Finance”.

v. Paragraph 57 on implementation of Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement had five options. The option 1 was to “establish a three-year Belem work programme and legally-binding action plan on the implementation of Article 9.1”.

The option 2 was to launch a work programme to address four distinct roadmaps, which included “workstream on pathways to support provided focussed on needs of developing countries as envisaged in Article 9.4 of the Paris Agreement and not finding full expression in the NCQG decision”; “workstream on pathways to mobilised finance building from the US$300 bn (per year) in the NCQG (new collective quantified goal on finance) and also aligning it with Article 9.3 (on the mobilisation of finance) of the Paris Agreement, and trust building transparency arrangements around that”; “workstream on 1.3T as expressed in the NCQG decision and further work on taking forward the recommendations of the Baku to Belem Roadmap report, noting the importance of support of our capital markets in domestic resource mobilisation efforts”; and “workstream on quality of finance issues raised in the NCQG such as cost of capital, debt-free instruments”.

A option 3 was to convene “an annual high-level ministerial round table to reflect upon the implementation of the NCQG…” and establishing “a two year work programme under the CMA, taking into account the process on the NCQG implementation commencing in 2028, to deliberate on the implementation on the NCQG, including on the provision and mobilisation of support…”.

Option 4 was to “establish the Belem Global De-Risking and Project Preparation and Development Facility (“Belem Facility for Implementation”) to catalyze climate finance and implementation in developing country Parties by translating nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans into project pipelines and/or country platforms and providing solutions to de-risk investments in developing country Parties and urges developed country Parties to capitalize the Belem Facility for Implementation in accordance with Article 9, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement”.

Option 5 was a no-text option

vi. Paragraph 58, on unilateral trade measures, had the following four options.

Option 1 was to invite the Presidencies of COP30 and COP31 “to organize technical workshops on trade–climate linkages, with the participation of Parties and relevant international organizations…”.

Option 2 was to convene a dialogue at the “sixty-fourth, sixty-sixth and sixty-eighth sessions of the subsidiary bodies, with the participation of Parties and relevant stakeholders…will allow the consideration of opportunities, challenges, and barriers to enhancing international cooperation related to the role of trade as an enabler for achieving the Convention and the Paris Agreement”.

Option 3 involves a decision “to establish a Platform on Unilateral Trade-Restrictive Measures Related to Climate Change”.

Option 4 “invites the Secretary-General of the United Nations to convene a high-level summit on the importance of an open and supportive international economic system” and “launch an annual dialogue to facilitate discussions among Party and non-Party stakeholders on the importance of an open and supportive international economic system in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication”.

Press conference by COP 30 President

Meanwhile, evening on 18 Nov, the COP Presidency in a press briefing, said they had received positive feedback regarding the draft ‘mutirao’ text  “as a basis to continue work” during its consultations. The COP President André Corrêa do Lago said they had collected assessments of preferred options and interlinkage of issues from delegations. He also said that the contentious issue was finance and adaptation and added that “we want this to be an adaptation COP, (and) the GGA is central. The push for adaptation resources is significant.”

Do Lago also said that the paragraph on targets for transitioning away from fossil fuels had received mixed reviews: very favourable and very negative (see options in paragraph 35 above in relation to the ‘mutirao’ text).

Another COP Presidency representative, Ana Toni said during the press briefing that most groups had said it was a red line for them and that they do not want such language on fossil fuels and obligations.

On the mutirao process, a representative of the Presidency team said in the press briefing, “Normally a draft (text) like this appears in the very end of the conference. We decided to accelerate the mode of work and invite Parties to work in a task mode, in a mutirão mode….we asked them to approve as a package the mutirão decision and all seven or ten other decisions, including adaptation indicators, technology etc., that have issues related to finance, NDCs and finance for adaptation. That was the criteria for the package we want to get approved tomorrow. If we get it approved, we will get the whole package approved later. If it is not possible, we have more time.”

(It was only the second day of the final week of the COP, but several observers said it felt the final day of negotiations. With many issues witnessing huge divergences among Parties, whether the Brazilian Presidency will actually be able to get Parties to agree to a consensus so soon in the mid-week, remains to be seen. The COP 30 Presidency had announced earlier that it aimed to adopt the mutiao package on Wed, Nov 19, which would actually be quite historic, given that COPs usually go overtime, and decisions get adopted way past the scheduled official closing of meetings.)

Do Lago also said at the press briefing that President Lula would meet ministers of negotiating groups on Wednesday, 19th Nov (probably to push for compromises to be reached.)

The race is on to see what will eventually be delivered out of COP 30. – Third World Network