Global Temperatures to Stay Near Record Highs

A young man braves the drought in Satkhira region of Bangladesh, as he wa;ks to a reservoir to collect water.

The world is heading into another period of dangerous heat, a new UN report warned on Thursday, with global temperatures over the next five years almost certain to remain “at or near record levels” as climate change accelerates across land and sea.

A report produced by the UK Met Office and released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

The report also found a 91 percent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.

The 1.5°C threshold is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change. Scientists warn that exceeding it for prolonged periods could sharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and displacement.

Climate Goals Still Within Reach

Temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable, as the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.

However, the forecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.

Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average.

The report also said there is a 75 percent chance that average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.

Arctic Warming Intensifies

Projections that the Arctic will continue warming far faster than the rest of the planet are also raising alarm.

Temperatures across the region during the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline — more than three-and-a-half times the projected global average increase over the same period.

Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. The loss of sea ice accelerates warming by reducing the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight and disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns, and livelihoods in polar regions.

Shifting Rainfall Patterns

The report pointed to widening shifts in global rainfall patterns linked to a warming climate.

Higher-than-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast in the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.

Wetter conditions are also expected at higher northern latitudes during upcoming winter seasons.

The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centres, and national weather agencies prepare for climate risks that are no longer distant projections but increasingly part of the world’s near-term reality.