Bangladesh Faces Power Strain Ahead of Summer

While Bangladesh successfully navigated power and gas supply challenges during the holy month of Ramadan, officials are now bracing for a more difficult scenario as they prepare for the upcoming peak summer season. They anticipate a potential crisis, with power shortages projected to reach up to 3,000 MW if the demand exceeds 18,000 MW during the summer months, expected from April 15th to September 15th.

Currently, the relatively mild weather during Ramadan has kept electricity demand at a manageable 15,000 MW. However, with rising temperatures, the strain on the national power grid is expected to worsen.

Official data from Power Grid Bangladesh PLC, which monitors hourly power demand, supply, and load shedding, revealed that on March 20th, the country experienced 215 MW of load shedding when demand peaked at 13,700 MW at 4 pm. This marked the highest level of load shedding observed in recent days. A Power Grid official highlighted concerns over the widening gap between demand and supply as temperatures continue to rise.

In recent days, the highest electricity demand reached 14,700 MW during the evening peak on March 19th, while supply lagged at approximately 14,500 MW. This indicates a growing imbalance that could worsen in the coming months.

The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has acknowledged the crucial support from Petrobangla in securing adequate gas supplies, which have allowed gas-fired power plants to generate around 6,500 MW of electricity. “We have been receiving over 1,000 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) of gas, which has helped maintain stable power generation,” said a BPDB official.

However, with summer approaching and demand expected to spike, managing power supply will become increasingly challenging unless gas supply increases to 1,200 MMCFD, the official noted.

Energy Sector Leaders Voice Concerns over Summer Gas Demands

Officials at Petrobangla, the state-owned company responsible for gas production and distribution, have also expressed concern about the impending summer energy crisis. Md. Rafiqul Islam, Director of Operations at Petrobangla, acknowledged the government’s extra efforts during Ramadan, including importing five additional LNG cargoes to meet the seasonal demand. However, he cautioned that even more gas will be needed during the peak summer months.

“While we have managed to import extra LNG during Ramadan, the summer months will require even more imports. Unfortunately, this may not be feasible due to limitations in our re-gasification capacity,” he said.

The country’s two LNG terminals have a combined re-gasification capacity of 1,100 MMCFD, but demand is expected to exceed 1,200 MMCFD during the summer. Moreover, the current import limit stands at nine LNG cargoes per month—five from long-term contracts and four from the spot market.

As of March 20th, Bangladesh's total gas supply stood at 2,877 MMCFD, against a demand of 3,800 to 4,000 MMCFD. The country imports about 1,000 MMCFD of LNG, with the remainder coming from local production.

Strategic Shift to Coal and Oil-Based Plants

Given the expected gas supply constraints, senior BPDB officials have indicated a shift towards greater reliance on coal-fired and furnace oil-based power plants to bridge the shortfall.

“Currently, we generate an average of 5,600 MW from gas-fired plants, 4,500 MW from coal-fired plants, and 2,500 MW from furnace oil-based plants, with the remaining 2,500 MW sourced from imports and other means,” said a BPDB official.

He added, “If gas supply does not improve during the summer, we will increase output from coal and furnace oil plants as much as possible.” However, despite these efforts, officials acknowledge that power cuts of at least 2,000 MW are likely during peak summer, further straining the nation’s power grid.

With mounting pressure on the power sector, the upcoming summer months pose a significant challenge for Bangladesh, as officials scramble to secure sufficient energy resources to meet growing demand.