500,000 China-Japan Trips Cancelled After Travel Warning

Around 500,000 air tickets to Japan are believed to have been cancelled by Chinese travellers following a government travel warning, an aviation analyst said Tuesday.

The advisory came after tensions escalated between Beijing and Tokyo, triggered by Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting that her country could intervene militarily if Taiwan — claimed by China as its territory — were attacked.

China issued the warning late Friday, urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan for the foreseeable future.

Independent aviation analyst Li Hanming, who tracks Chinese passengers’ active flight bookings from major airlines and online travel agencies, said active bookings to Japan fell from about 1.5 million on November 15 to just one million two days later. He estimated that roughly 500,000 trips had been cancelled.

“Typically, day-to-day cancellations are around five percent,” Li noted. “A 33 percent drop is unprecedented and reflects the travel warning’s impact. More cancellations are likely if tensions rise further.”

In response, several Chinese airlines, including the three largest carriers, offered full refunds for Japan flights booked until December 31.

Travel agencies in China have reacted differently to the advisory. One state-owned company removed all Japan travel options from its app, while another agency in Beijing stopped accepting new bookings. Others continue operations as normal, hoping the disruption will be temporary.

Chinese tourists are Japan’s largest group of visitors, with nearly 7.5 million arriving in the first nine months of 2025. They spent over a billion dollars per month in the third quarter, accounting for almost 30 percent of all tourist spending.

Following China’s travel warning, Japanese tourism and retail shares dropped sharply on Monday.