Rohingya insurgency risk rises as repatriation stalls

Rohingya armed groups are stepping up recruitment efforts in Bangladesh’s refugee camps amid growing fears that hopes for repatriation to Myanmar are fading. Following the Arakan Army’s takeover of large parts of Rakhine State, these groups have paused internal clashes and begun mobilizing support for a potential insurgency.

According to a new report titled Bangladesh/Myanmar: Risk of Rohingya Insurgency by the Belgium-based Crisis Group, the recent truce among Rohingya factions has enabled them to regroup and expand their influence. Using religious rhetoric, they are rallying support for an armed campaign against the Arakan Army.

While any insurgency is unlikely to succeed militarily, it could gravely damage intercommunal relations in Myanmar and further reduce chances of safe return for over one million refugees currently living in Bangladesh.

The report warns that renewed conflict in Rakhine could trap civilians between rival forces, escalating humanitarian and political instability across the region. It also highlights the deepening desperation in Bangladesh’s camps, where diminishing aid and stalled repatriation are pushing refugees toward radical alternatives.

Crisis Group recommends that Bangladesh enhance informal aid and trade with Rakhine State while cutting ties with armed groups in the camps. It urges the Arakan Army to govern inclusively and engage with Rohingya civilian leaders. Donors, too, are called upon to maintain humanitarian support despite growing financial constraints.

Ultimately, the report emphasizes that insurgency will not resolve the crisis. Restoring hope and stability requires coordinated efforts by Bangladesh, the Arakan Army, and the international community to support both immediate needs and long-term repatriation prospects.